Wednesday, March 7, 2007

Deflation

Now that everyone has had some time to begin absorbing Aaron Brown's incredible guest article, I guess its time for me to start contributing something to my own blog again.

First of all, one reader posted over on The Waiver Wire asking when the final pricing changes would be made for Rotohog drafts. I emailed David Wu from Rotohog and he said that the final changes will be made on the 11th, but that very little would change after the 8th. I assume that means someone will review all the pricing tomorrow, and that changes will only be made on the 9th-11th if something big happens (ie "Gagne's arm just fell off...$20 might be a little high for him").

While I was working on my valuations of players for Rotohog, I noticed something odd. If you total up the prices listed for Rotohog drafts (based on data in their system yesterday) for the top 144 position players (12 teams, 9 hitters, 3 bench slots), the total comes out to almost exactly $275 per team. That means that if all bench slots are used for hitters (which I realize isn't going to happen) there will be no money AT ALL left for pitchers. I'm not sure if this was intentional or not, but the fact that the math worked out so neatly to $275 (the amount you start the draft with) makes me think maybe someone doing the valuations messed up and forgot that hitters and pitchers both have to be acquired within that budget. I actually made the same mistake initially when I was doing my projected valuations. It also could be an intentional decision by the Rotohog folks to increase liquidity in the market. Either way, one of two things should happen:

1. Lots of good players go undrafted, leading to a major deflation in the Rotohog universe right after the draft. People who miss the draft will be at an advantage over all but the most skillful drafters.

OR

2. Draft prices will be revised drastically lower by the 11th.

I emailed Rotohog to find out what the story is, and will let everyone know how they respond.




To play Rotohog, go to Rotohog and fill out a registration form. Make sure to enter 'waiverwire' (without the quotes) into the referral code field to let them know we sent you (which will ultimately help me raise money for Save The Children). After that, join 'The Waiver Wire' league at Rotohog for some friendly competition (which doesn't actually affect the overall standings and prizes).

1 comment:

David said...

there is a camp that thinks there will be an inflation, because of the extra $25 that EVERYONE will get after the draft...so who is right? The deflationist, or the inflationist?! Who knows?! That's why I'm so looking forward to the start of the season, so we'll find out!

Alex, thanks for writing this terrific blog!