Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Some Good Questions

Somebody asked a few good questions in the comments a couple days ago:

1. How did your draft go?
It went well. I'll probably share the details on Friday, but I got all but two of the bargains that I was targeting and had about $80 to spare. I suspect I may be the only person in the Rotohog universe who only drafted one hitter.

2. You may have explained this before, but why do you think that the player prices will decline as soon as the market opens? I think that all players (well ok, most) might go up in value becuase each owner will have about 10% more money to work with. Sure, 3 additional players may be added to each roster, but those who want to have a strong starting lineup will have more money to spend such players.
Actually, I'm not so sure what will happen anymore. I agree that there will be some initial inflation from the extra $25 that we'll each get on Friday. And I'm positive that there will be long run deflation as money disappears from the Rotohog universe in the form of transaction costs. But I don't know what will happen in between, and don't think that anyone does until we learn more about how trading and pricing work. My original assumption of deflation was based on what is likely to be an incorrect assumption that prices would drop on players who aren't 100% owned.

3. Finally, I like your idea of rotating players, but how feasible do you think this will be? Do you think there will be "transaction costs" (much higher buy prices than sell prices) that will prohibit one from turning his/her lineup over every day/week/etc.? Also, do you think a player will be cheaper (and therefore, also have a low sell price) on his off day than on a day when he will play 5 or 6 straight days?
Transaction costs are a concern, but I think there will be plenty of opportunities for good players to make money through trading, so it shouldn't prevent a strategy of rotating makes it possible to get by with fewer players in the lineup at the same time. I'm not sure that the pricing pattern will be as simple 'cheaper on day off', but I believe that there will be some fairly regular patterns based on playing schedules, and that exploiting these will be one of the biggest edges that the best Rotohog players will have over the rest.

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