As you may have gathered, I've become completely obsessed with figuring out the correct strategy to win at Rotohog. I'm focused on it to such an extent that I may not play in any other fantasy baseball leagues this season, although I haven't decided that for sure yet.
Why am I so obsessed with 'figuring out' Rotohog? Why is thinking about it keeping me up at night? Because nobody has ever done this before. For normal fantasy league strategy, plenty of people have a pretty good idea what to do, and any adjustments are minor. But in Rotohog, we really have no idea what will happen! Nobody has ever done fantasy baseball league drafts where everyone picks simultaneously. How will that affect strategy? Nobody has ever done fantasy baseball where 100,000 people can trade with eachother on an open market. How will that affect winning strategy?
One thing that's become clear is that a lot of really bad advice will be given. People who should know better will not do the work necessary to give accurate advice on how to win at Rotohog, instead just recycling the work they've done for other types of rotisserie league strategy. I went to bed last night thinking that less than 5% of the 100,000 will go into the draft with reasonable strategy plan and reasonable player valuations. After reading some of the advice available on the internet earlier this morning, I'm going to revise that opinion to less than 1%. Probably substantially less. That means that of the 100,000 entrants, at least 99,000 will come out of the draft with virtually no shot at winning, no matter what they do for the rest of the season. That's great news for those of us who hope and expect to be part of the remaining 1%. Not considering anything other than the likely results of the drafts, our 'equity' in the $160K+ total prize pool is $160 each!!!