Thursday, March 8, 2007

I've gotten confirmation from the folks at Rotohog that the valuation are intentional and that they were made high deliberately to prevent the entire available supply of good players from being drafted, because it was felt this would prevent the 'market' from being liquid enough.

I think their logic makes sense, but I do think that this is going to lead to some pretty serious deflation initially, although one thing to keep in mind with any speculation about how the market will react is that we don't actually know the mechanism that will drive prices...its not a bid/ask spread like a true stock market. So there's definitely some uncertainty in any prediction about it. It is clear though that prices won't be adjusted drastically prior to the 11th, and that many good players will go undrafted. There also appears to be a LOT of risk if you don't draft could find yourself in a substantially worse position than if you didn't participate in the draft at all!

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